quinta-feira, abril 14, 2011
Não sei se este texto ainda vai a tempo de parar algumas das balas auto-disparadas que neste momento se encontrem entre a saída do revólver e a pele que reveste a têmpora de alguns concidadãos, mas cá fica (o original pode ser consultado em http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_by_U.S._presidential_terms:
National debt by U.S. presidential terms
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Economic commentators have noted a pattern between changes in US national debt and US presidential terms over the last few decades. These commentators observe that changes in US national debt have been correlated with the political ideology of the ruling administration.
Economic historian J. Bradford DeLong observes a contrast not so much between Republicans and Democrats, but between Democrats and "old-style Republicans (Eisenhower and Nixon)" on one hand (decreasing debt), and "new-style Republicans" on the other (increasing debt).[1] Similarly, Republican David Stockman, director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, as op-ed contributor to the New York Times blamed the "ideological tax-cutters" of the Reagan administration for the increase of national debt during the 1980s.[2]
Contents[hide] |
[edit]Gross federal debt
This table lists the gross U.S. federal debt[3] as a percentage of GDP by Presidential term since World War II.[4] The current gross federal debt as a percentage of GDP (83.4% at the end of 2009) is currently the highest it has been since the late 1940s. The debt briefly reached over 100% of GDP in the aftermath of World War II.
The President proposes the budget for the government to the congress, which can amend it before passing. The U. S. Constitution in Article 1, Section 7 grants exclusive right to originate revenue related bills to the House of Representatives; the President's proposals are an indication of spending desired, but it is the House which defines the spending through the final wording of the bills. Since the budget resolution is a “concurrent” congressional resolution, not an ordinary bill, it does not go to the President for his signature or veto.[5] While this leaves substantial room for the legislature to change the deficit, congressional historian Louis Fisher observes that, "Congress rarely appropriates more than what the President requests." In the case of Nixon, who fought fiercely with Congress over the budget, he writes, "Congress was able to adhere to the President's totals while significantly altering his priorities." [6]
U.S. president | Party | Term years | Start debt/GDP | End debt/GDP | Increase debt ($T) | Increase debt/GDP (in percentage points) | House Control (with # if split during term) | Senate Control (with # if split during term) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roosevelt/Truman | D | 1945–1949 | 117.5% | 93.1% | 0.05 | -24.4% | 79th D, 80th R | 79th D, 80th R |
| Harry Truman | D | 1949–1953 | 93.1% | 71.4% | 0.01 | -21.7% | D | D |
| Dwight Eisenhower | R | 1953–1957 | 71.4% | 60.4% | 0.01 | -11.0% | 83rd R, 84th D | 83rd R, 84th D |
| Dwight Eisenhower | R | 1957–1961 | 60.4% | 55.2% | 0.02 | -5.2% | D | D |
| Kennedy/Johnson | D | 1961–1965 | 55.2% | 46.9% | 0.03 | -8.3% | D | D |
| Lyndon Johnson | D | 1965–1969 | 46.9% | 38.6% | 0.05 | -8.3% | D | D |
| Richard Nixon | R | 1969–1973 | 38.6% | 35.6% | 0.07 | -3.0% | D | D |
| Nixon/Ford | R | 1973–1977 | 35.6% | 35.8% | 0.19 | +0.2% | D | D |
| Jimmy Carter | D | 1977–1981 | 35.8% | 32.5% | 0.28 | -3.3% | D | D |
| Ronald Reagan | R | 1981–1985 | 32.5% | 43.8% | 0.66 | +11.3% | D | R |
| Ronald Reagan | R | 1985–1989 | 43.8% | 53.1% | 1.04 | +9.3% | D | 99th R, 100th D |
| George H. W. Bush | R | 1989–1993 | 53.1% | 66.1% | 1.40 | +15.0% | D | D |
| Bill Clinton | D | 1993–1997 | 66.1% | 65.4% | 1.18 | -0.7% | 103rd D, 104th R | 103rd D, 104th R |
| Bill Clinton | D | 1997–2001 | 65.4% | 56.4% | 0.45 | -9.0% | R | R |
| George W. Bush | R | 2001–2005 | 56.4% | 63.5% | 1.73 | +7.1% | R | 107th Split, 108 R |
| George W. Bush | R | 2005–2009 | 63.4% | 83.4% | 2.63 | +20.0% | 109th R, 110th D | 109th R, 110th D |
| Barack Obama | D | 2009– | 83.4% | 111th D, 112th R | D |
(Source: CBO Historical Budget Page and Whitehouse FY 2011 Budget - Table 7.1 Federal Debt at the End of Year PDF, Excel, Senate.gov)
Notes:
- For net jobs changes over the corresponding periods, see: Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms.
[edit]Public debt
Gross debt and public debt are different. Public debt is the gross debt minus intra-governmental obligations (such as the money that the government owes to the two Social Security Trust Funds, the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program, and the Social Security Disability Insurance program).[7]
The figure below shows the trend in public debt with the background colored by the party controlling the executive. The color of the trend line does not represent party affiliation; only the background does.
[edit]Federal spending, federal debt, and GDP
The table below shows the annual federal spending, gross federal debt, and gross domestic product for average presidential parties, specific presidential terms, and specific fiscal years.[8]
| Fiscal Year | President | Party of President | Federal Spending | Federal Debt | Gross Domestic Product | Inflation Adjustor[9] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billions[10] | Adjusted[11] | Increase | Billions[12] | Adjusted[13] | Increase | Billions[14] | Adjusted[15] | Increase | ||||
| 1978-2005 | Democratic | 9.9% | 4.2% | 12.6% | ||||||||
| 1978-2005 | Republican | 12.1% | 36.4% | 10.7% | ||||||||
| 1978–1981 | Carter | Democratic | $678 | $1,219 | 17.2% | $994 | $1,787 | -0.4% | $3,055 | $5,492 | 9.4% | |
| 1982–1985 | Reagan | Republican | $946 | $1,396 | 14.5% | $1,817 | $2,680 | 49.0% | $4,142 | $6,108 | 11.2% | |
| 1986–1989 | Reagan | Republican | $1,144 | $1,499 | 7.4% | $2,867 | $3,757 | 40.2% | $5,401 | $7,077 | 15.9% | |
| 1990–1993 | Bush | Republican | $1,410 | $1,615 | 7.8% | $4,351 | $4,987 | 32.7% | $6,576 | $7,536 | 6.5% | |
| 1994–1997 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,601 | $1,684 | 4.3% | $5,369 | $5,647 | 13.2% | $8,182 | $8,606 | 14.2% | |
| 1998–2001 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,863 | $1,821 | 8.1% | $5,769 | $5,638 | -0.2% | $10,058 | $9,829 | 14.2% | |
| 2002–2005 | Bush | Republican | $2,472 | $2,165 | 18.9% | $7,905 | $6,923 | 22.8% | $12,238 | $10,717 | 9.0% | |
| 2006-2009* | Bush | Republican | $3,107 | $2,452 | 13.3% | $10,413 | $8,218 | 18.7% | $15,027 | $11,859 | 10.7% | |
| 1977 | Ford | Republican | $409 | $1,040 | $706 | $1,795 | $1,974 | $5,019 | 0.39 | |||
| 1978 | Carter | Democratic | $459 | $1,093 | 5.1% | $776 | $1,850 | 3.1% | $2,217 | $5,285 | 5.3% | 0.42 |
| 1979 | Carter | Democratic | $504 | $1,107 | 1.3% | $829 | $1,821 | -1.5% | $2,501 | $5,494 | 4.0% | 0.46 |
| 1980 | Carter | Democratic | $591 | $1,175 | 6.1% | $909 | $1,808 | -0.8% | $2,727 | $5,422 | -1.3% | 0.50 |
| 1981 | Carter | Democratic | $678 | $1,219 | 3.8% | $994 | $1,787 | -1.1% | $3,055 | $5,492 | 1.3% | 0.56 |
| 1982 | Reagan | Republican | $746 | $1,252 | 2.6% | $1,137 | $1,908 | 6.8% | $3,228 | $5,417 | -1.4% | 0.60 |
| 1983 | Reagan | Republican | $808 | $1,294 | 3.4% | $1,371 | $2,195 | 15.0% | $3,441 | $5,510 | 1.7% | 0.62 |
| 1984 | Reagan | Republican | $852 | $1,300 | 0.4% | $1,564 | $2,386 | 8.7% | $3,840 | $5,858 | 6.3% | 0.66 |
| 1985 | Reagan | Republican | $946 | $1,396 | 7.4% | $1,817 | $2,680 | 12.3% | $4,142 | $6,108 | 4.3% | 0.68 |
| 1986 | Reagan | Republican | $990 | $1,426 | 2.1% | $2,120 | $3,052 | 13.9% | $4,412 | $6,352 | 4.0% | 0.69 |
| 1987 | Reagan | Republican | $1,004 | $1,406 | -1.4% | $2,345 | $3,283 | 7.6% | $4,647 | $6,506 | 2.4% | 0.71 |
| 1988 | Reagan | Republican | $1,065 | $1,447 | 2.9% | $2,601 | $3,534 | 7.7% | $5,009 | $6,806 | 4.6% | 0.74 |
| 1989 | Reagan | Republican | $1,144 | $1,499 | 3.6% | $2,867 | $3,757 | 6.3% | $5,401 | $7,077 | 4.0% | 0.76 |
| 1990 | Bush | Republican | $1,253 | $1,590 | 6.1% | $3,206 | $4,067 | 8.3% | $5,735 | $7,277 | 2.8% | 0.79 |
| 1991 | Bush | Republican | $1,324 | $1,610 | 1.3% | $3,598 | $4,374 | 7.5% | $5,935 | $7,215 | -0.8% | 0.82 |
| 1992 | Bush | Republican | $1,382 | $1,624 | 0.9% | $4,001 | $4,703 | 7.5% | $6,240 | $7,334 | 1.7% | 0.85 |
| 1993 | Bush | Republican | $1,410 | $1,615 | -0.5% | $4,351 | $4,987 | 6.0% | $6,576 | $7,536 | 2.8% | 0.87 |
| 1994 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,462 | $1,642 | 1.7% | $4,643 | $5,216 | 4.6% | $6,961 | $7,820 | 3.8% | 0.89 |
| 1995 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,516 | $1,662 | 1.2% | $4,920 | $5,395 | 3.4% | $7,326 | $8,033 | 2.7% | 0.91 |
| 1996 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,561 | $1,673 | 0.7% | $5,181 | $5,554 | 3.0% | $7,694 | $8,248 | 2.7% | 0.93 |
| 1997 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,601 | $1,684 | 0.7% | $5,369 | $5,647 | 1.7% | $8,182 | $8,606 | 4.3% | 0.95 |
| 1998 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,653 | $1,721 | 2.2% | $5,478 | $5,704 | 1.0% | $8,628 | $8,985 | 4.4% | 0.96 |
| 1999 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,702 | $1,746 | 1.5% | $5,605 | $5,750 | 0.8% | $9,125 | $9,361 | 4.2% | 0.97 |
| 2000 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,789 | $1,789 | 2.5% | $5,628 | $5,628 | -2.1% | $9,710 | $9,710 | 3.7% | 1.00 |
| 2001 | Clinton | Democratic | $1,863 | $1,821 | 1.8% | $5,769 | $5,638 | 0.2% | $10,058 | $9,829 | 1.2% | 1.02 |
| 2002 | Bush | Republican | $2,011 | $1,929 | 6.0% | $6,198 | $5,945 | 5.5% | $10,377 | $9,954 | 1.3% | 1.04 |
| 2003 | Bush | Republican | $2,160 | $2,018 | 4.6% | $6,760 | $6,316 | 6.2% | $10,809 | $10,099 | 1.4% | 1.07 |
| 2004 | Bush | Republican | $2,293 | $2,082 | 3.2% | $7,354 | $6,677 | 5.7% | $11,500 | $10,441 | 3.4% | 1.10 |
| 2005 | Bush | Republican | $2,472 | $2,165 | 4.0% | $7,905 | $6,923 | 3.7% | $12,238 | $10,717 | 2.6% | 1.14 |
| 2006 | Bush | Republican | $2,655 | $2,249 | 3.9% | $8,451 | $7,158 | 3.4% | $13,016 | $11,024 | 2.9% | 1.18 |
| 2007 | Bush | Republican | $2,730 | $2,263 | 0.6% | $8,951 | $7,419 | 3.6% | $13,668 | $11,329 | 2.8% | 1.21 |
| 2008* | Bush | Republican | $2,931 | $2,366 | 4.6% | $9,654 | $7,793 | 5.0% | $14,312 | $11,553 | 2.0% | 1.24 |
| 2009* | Bush | Republican | $3,107 | $2,452 | 3.6% | $10,413 | $8,218 | 5.5% | $15,027 | $11,859 | 2.6% | 1.27 |
| 2010* | Obama | Democratic | $3,991 | $2,392 | 1.4% | $13,954 | $8,477 | 6.2% | $15,792 | $12,221 | 3.0% | 1.29 |
Formula notes
- The dollar amounts for each presidential term are taken from the last fiscal year in that term.
- The increase in each presidential term is the increase in the adjusted amount from the last fiscal year of the previous term to the last fiscal year of the current term.
- The value for each presidential party is the average of the values for all the presidents in that party.
- The values for the years 2008, 2009, and 2010 represent estimates from the source material.
[edit]See also
[edit]Notes
- ^ "contrast between the Democrats and the old-style Republicans (Eisenhower and Nixon) on the one hand and the new-style Republicans on the other is quite striking." Brad DeLong (2009-11-20)."Comparing Debt-to-GDP Ratios with Presidential Terms". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 2010-08-09.
- Brad DeLong (2008-05-01). "Short-Term Costs of Long-Run Fiscal Stupidity - Grasping Reality with Both Hands". Delong.typepad.com. Retrieved 2010-08-09.
- ^ Stockman, David (2010-07-31). "Four Deformations of the Apocalypse". New York Times (nytimes.com). Retrieved 2010-08-09.
- ^ The gross federal debt includes intra-government debt, i.e. money owed by one branch of the federal government to another. When this amount is subtracted the remaining quantity is known as the public debt.
- ^ Budget FY2007
- ^ http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=155
- ^ Fisher, Louis (Nov. - Dec. 1990). "Federal Budget Doldrums: The Vacuum in Presidential Leadership". Public Administration Review 50 (6): 693–700. doi:10.2307/976984. JSTOR 976984.
- ^ Frontline - Ten Trillion and Counting: Defining the Debt
- ^ Budget FY 2009
- ^ Budget FY2009. Addendum: Composite Deflator, page 26. Divide current dollars by this number to produce value in (constant) FY2000 dollars.
- ^ Budget FY2009. Outlays in current dollars, page 26.
- ^ Budget FY2009. Outlays in current dollars, page 26, divided by Inflation Adjustor.
- ^ Budget FY 2009. Gross Federal Debt in current dollars, page 127.
- ^ Budget FY 2009. Gross Federal Debt in current dollars, page 127, divided by Inflation Adjustor.
- ^ Budget FY2009. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in current dollars, page 194.
- ^ Budget FY2009. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in current dollars, page 194, divided by Inflation Adjustor.
[edit]References
- Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2007.
- Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2009.
[edit]External links
- Another tabulation of Federal deficits (not debt) by Presidential term
- Another tabulation of Federal debt (not deficit) by Presidential term since 1976: per capita, per capita income, and as percentage of GDP
- Mike Kimel (2007-02-13). "God Punishes Us When We (Collectively) Vote Republican | Angry Bear". Angrybearblog.com. Retrieved 2010-08-09.
- Stephen Bloch. "U.S. Federal Deficits and Presidents". home.adelphi.edu. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
- Brad DeLong (2009-11-20). "Comparing Debt-to-GDP Ratios with Presidential Terms". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 2010-08-09.
- Brad DeLong (2008-05-01). "Short-Term Costs of Long-Run Fiscal Stupidity - Grasping Reality with Both Hands". Delong.typepad.com. Retrieved 2010-08-09.
- Scott Willeke (2010-03-02). "United States Deficit & Debt During Presidents from 1969-2019". Blog.scott.willeke.com. Retrieved 2010-08-09.
- Steve Stoft. "U.S. National Debt Graph: What the Press Won't Tell You". Zfacts.com. Retrieved 2010-08-09.
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